I know, the Islamic State,
beheading people as it goes, has expanded into Libya, has a foothold in Algeria
and Egypt, and now has its eyes on Lebanon. Republicans and the Wall
Street Journal, followed by The Economist,
are multiplying their attempts to get us more concerned. They even had me worried. And then
along came this article in The Atlantic.
The Islamic State, I am convinced
after reading Graeme Wood's unemotional account of it (The Atlantic, 3-15),
is run by such a bunch of losers, playing their parts in such a hopeless
narrative, based on such a doubtful ideology, that Americans have nothing
whatsoever to worry about.
Losers? How's this: If the ruler of the State, the caliph, deviates even
slightly in his implementation of Shariah his followers can replace him. Have you ever heard a surer invitation
to chaotic governance? Can't you
hear the charges of deviation, the quarrels over the exact law, the
proclamations of opposing factions, the incitements to revolt, and, finally,
the assertions of purer devotion by the usurping caliph, and his replacement,
and his replacement. It's the
formula that made Muslim countries losers before every united modern country
that wanted to take advantage of them. It's what will have these sky-shooters
aiming at each other in no time.
Hopeless narrative? Try this: In the last days "the
armies of Rome [the West] will mass to meet the armies of Islam in Northern
Syria" and "Islam's final showdown with an anti-messiah will occur in
Jerusalem after a period of renewed Islamic conquest." The believer's part is to effect the
conquest and prepare the way for the messiah, the Mahdi, who with God's help will
lead them in the final victory of good over evil. Only losers crazed by their own losses would find any hope
in a pre-musketry vision like this.
(Wood tells us that IS propagandists draw clips from "Hollywood war
movies set in medieval times" with armies "on horseback carrying
ancient weapons.")
As for ideology all you need is
the losers' belief that all this is predicted and will be ensured by God. Remind yourself of what has happened to
those holding such an ideology, or theology, when they go up against superior
weapons and you see how it's going to go.
Weapons now, think of them and you
might see something really worth your worry, Iran with nukes. Look at what the IS caliphs
command and you see only backwardness and incompetence. They can't get oil out of the ground by
themselves, they can't refine it, they can't manufacture tanks and guns, they
can't do anything but use things Western technology has produced. In some of this they are expert, as
when they design a web site or make TV clips. Otherwise they are a laugh. Not so with Iran, not by a long shot. They've got most of the goods and all
the know-how. And nobody will be
laughing if they, sharing the most dangerous parts of the IS ideology, have a
chance to act on it.
Once again it's a matter of reflex
vs. calculation. We see an image
on a screen and go out of our minds with worry. "My God, these people are now only a short distance
from Italy." What are we
thinking? Islamic terrorists
are no more capable of jumping that distance than Communists were of jumping
the 90 miles from Cuba. You want a
jump look at the Iranian missiles.
Calculate the distance they can travel. Figure the throw weight when producible A-bombs are
aboard. What are we doing worrying
about guys with knives and scimitars?
I don't think we can go through
that calculation without concluding that Benjamin Netanyahu, pain in the neck
that he is, is way ahead of us in strategic thinking. Maybe he shouldn't be addressing Congress the way he is
going to, maybe he belongs to the party most likely to make suckers of us at a
bargaining table, maybe he's got the support of some of the most unlikable
people in America, but that shouldn't keep us from listening to what he has to
say about Iran tomorrow.
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